Munich MSC

Against the background of the news about the death of Oleksiy Navalny and the capture of Avdiivka, the West is preparing for a protracted war between Russia and Ukraine.

Sometimes small details symbolize big changes. There were several such details at the Munich Security Conference (MSC), which concluded on Sunday, February 18. For the first time, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy received a separate room for communication with the leaders of other countries in the fashionable Bayerischer Hof hotel, where the forum was held. Before that, he and his predecessors went to meetings with other, more influential politicians. Russia's war against Ukraine made him one of the main and most guarded participants.

Another example - before Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergey Lavrov, came to Munich every year and spoke every Saturday, on the main day of the conference, around noon. Now the official representatives of Moscow are not invited to Munich, and the conditional "Lavrov window" in the program was given to the chief diplomat of China, Wang Yi. He is expected in Munich next year as well, this is similar to a new tradition of the leading Western conference, which celebrated its 60th anniversary.

The mood at numerous venues was far from celebratory, but balanced between anxiety, uncertainty and calls to save the world order, which is bursting at the seams, and to strengthen NATO. The organizers published a report with perhaps the most pessimistic headline in recent years - "Lose-Lose?" (Does everyone lose?). According to the results of the forum, many interlocutors of DW said that the question mark can be removed.

The death of Navalny and the capture of Avdiivka

Yes, Ukraine is increasingly short of Western ammunition and weapons after the issue of new aid was blocked in the US Congress. Against this background, already during the conference, news arrived that Ukrainian troops had left the city of Avdiyivka, a suburb of Donetsk. The attention of the world and the participants of the forum is also focused on the military confrontation between Israel and the radical Palestinian group Hamas. After all, in the US, the likely presidential candidate from the Republicans, former head of the White House, Donald Trump, questioned the essence of the NATO treaty, saying that he would not defend countries that do not fulfill the obligation to spend two percent of GDP on defense. There are many of them, and Germany was among them until recently.

An hour before the opening of the three-day conference, the news came about the death in the colony of the most famous Russian opposition leader Oleksiy Navalny. This shocked Russian and Western experts and journalists. Almost everyone talked about the murder and blamed the Russian authorities. Navalny's name sounded in the speeches of Western leaders from the first to the last minute. The unplanned speech of the politician's widow Yulia Navalny became one of the emotional moments of the conference. The hall gave her a standing ovation for almost a minute. Navalny called for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his entourage to be held accountable "for all the terrible things" they are doing to Russia and its family.

Navalny's death became the main topic at the discussion about the "future of Russia". It so happened that only women took part in it - human rights defender Iryna Shcherbakova, Zhanna, the daughter of oppositionist Boris Nemtsov, who was killed in 2015, and political scientist Kateryna Shulman. Zhanna Nemtsova said that "the murder of Oleksiy Navalny is an act of intimidation," and a new stage is beginning in the history of Russia.

Sholz promised to support Ukraine as long as TAURUS is not

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi also mentioned Navalny, who considered the news of his death a signal to Russia, the forum and the West. Zelenskyi was also greeted and sent off with standing ovations. He addressed the participants in English. One of the main theses, which was remembered by many: "Don't ask Ukraine when the war will end, but ask yourself why Putin can still continue it." This was a hint about the insufficient supplies of weapons for Kyiv.

Western leaders sought assurances that aid would resume. This was spoken by US Vice President Kamalla Harris and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who made the Russian war in Ukraine the main topic of his speech. "The threat from Russia is real," Stolz said and called for increased defense spending to deter Moscow. In general, many German newspapers considered his speech not bright enough. Many have noticed how Scholz twice avoided a direct answer to the question of whether Berlin can transfer TAURUS cruise missiles to Ukraine, which Kyiv has been asking for for almost a year.

One of the important moments of the conference, which the chancellor also spoke about, is that the West and NATO are not waging a war with Russia and do not want to be drawn into it. In this regard, Scholz clearly stated that Western partners "do not send their soldiers to Ukraine."

Europe is preparing for a long war in Ukraine

Against the background of bad news from the front, President Zelensky had reasons to leave Munich with restrained optimism. Before his visit to the capital of Bavaria, he signed security agreements with Germany and France, which provide for early support. On the field of MSC, the German defense concern Rheinmetall announced the joint production of artillery shells of NATO caliber (155 mm) in Ukraine. There is an acute shortage of them, and Ukraine cannot produce such ammunition on its own.

There is still a shortage of such shells and other weapons in the West, but the situation is changing. At the forum in Munich, there were many statements about the need to "increase proceedings" and "move from words to deeds." There was an extremely frank discussion about what prevents this - competition in the arms market and "national pride". Why the changes are happening two years after the Russian invasion is an open question, like many others.

Trying to fight against pessimism, the organizers and participants of the forum were looking for a "ray of hope". Many speakers called the successes of the Ukrainian army in the Black Sea - the actual removal of the Russian blockade of the grain corridor, as well as the destruction of the ships of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation - as such a ray.

One of the main conclusions of the Munich Conference is beyond doubt: Europe has started preparing for a long war in Ukraine. And if a year ago the consequences of the Russian victory in Ukraine for the world were discussed on the sidelines, now it has become a topic of discussion on the podium.

Author: GEximius